Goldman Cuts First Solar Target as Bears Hold Near Cycle Highs

Valuation gives some context for the hesitation. The trailing PE has compressed to 8.2, down roughly 1.75 points over the past month, with the EV/EBITDA multiple also easing to 5.5. Both sit at low absolute levels, which the factor score system captures: FSLR ranks in the 98th percentile on EV/EBIT relative to its universe, a strong value signal. EPS surprise history is also solid, in the 75th percentile, though forward earnings momentum is weak: the 90-day EPS revision score sits in the 29th percentile, meaning analysts have been cutting estimates more than raising them heading into the print.

Short positioning has stabilised near its recent high. Short interest closed at 10.6% of free float, effectively flat for the week after a brief dip mid-session Wednesday. The monthly build is the more notable move: from roughly 9.4% in early September to where it is now, a 15% increase in borrowed shares. The ORTEX short score has nudged up to 57.9, a new high for the recent range and above the 56.4 level that the previous note flagged as elevated. Critically, the borrow market gives bears no structural constraint. Availability runs at 465%, meaning for every share currently lent out there are more than four still available to borrow, and the cost to borrow is just 0.54%, up about 5% on the week but still negligible in absolute terms. No squeeze pressure is building in the lending pool.

Options positioning has drifted slightly more defensive but without anything dramatic. The put/call ratio sits at 0.77, just below one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.74. That is a measured rather than extreme reading, consistent with investors buying some downside protection into the earnings date without aggressive directional conviction. The 52-week high on the PCR is 0.89, still well above current levels. One institutional flow worth noting: Capital Research and Management added 3.7 million shares in the most recent reported period, a substantial increase that made it a top-five holder. BlackRock, reporting as of September 30, added roughly 208,000 shares to bring its stake to 13%. The activist register carries a Schedule 13D/A from Farhad Ebrahimi, last filed in March 2025, with a reported 4.95% stake. Stakes on that register are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold, and a holder can fall below 5% without a further filing.

Wikipedia attention for First Solar is running well below its own 90-day norm, with a z-score of negative 1.6 as of late September, a signal of reduced retail engagement at a moment when institutional bears have been adding. With earnings due in 19 days, the setup worth tracking is whether the continuing target cuts from the Street narrow the gap between analyst expectations and where shorts are positioned, or whether the Q3 print gives bears the volume and pricing data they have been anticipating.