WULF's Short Base Holds Firm as the Stock Slips Further

Options positioning continues to tell a contrarian story. The put/call ratio is 0.36, barely above its 20-day mean of 0.355 and only 0.26 standard deviations from it, nowhere near a defensive reading. The 52-week low on the PCR is 0.32, and the current level is closer to that floor than to the 0.69 high. Options traders have been buying calls relative to puts for weeks, even as the stock has dropped 13% over the past month. That divergence between short-seller conviction and options bullishness is the central tension in the setup right now.

The Street is also broadly constructive, which makes the bears' persistence more pointed. Four analysts initiated coverage in September alone. UBS started at Buy with a $24 target, Wells Fargo at Overweight with a $30 target, and Rothschild at Neutral with a $15 target. The mean price target across the coverage is $33.48, more than double the current price of $14.40. Morgan Stanley, which maintains Overweight, trimmed its target in August from $72 to $62.50, still the most bullish reading on the Street. The bull case centres on the $19 billion Anthropic lease, roughly $27 billion in total contracted revenue, and a path from near-zero EBITDA today to an estimated $1 billion by 2028. Bears point to $5.2 billion of debt, a share count that grew 27% to 499 million by July, a GAAP net loss of $939.9 million driven largely by a $755.7 million non-cash warrant charge, and 2Q26 revenue of only $44.8 million with adjusted EBITDA still deeply negative at -$18.3 million. The gap between the contracted backlog and the actual cash coming in is the bear thesis in one sentence.

The ownership register adds a layer of complexity. CEO Paul Prager carries a Schedule 13D filing on the stock, the highest-signal activist designation on the SEC register. His last disclosed stake as of August 2026 was 10.7%, though 13D stakes are event-driven disclosures and positions can move without a further filing once they fall below 5%. His August sale of 137,500 shares under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan was a scheduled transaction rather than a discretionary signal. More notable on the buy side is director Michael Bucella, who made an open-market purchase of 6,085 shares at $14.79 on September 15, a small transaction but a discretionary one at prices close to current levels. Lone Pine Capital holds just under 5% after building a position earlier in the year, and Bank of Nova Scotia disclosed a 7.7% stake in July, up from 6.2% previously.

Across the peer group, the sector is broadly under pressure: CIFR fell 8% on the week, CLSK dropped 10.6%, and RIOT lost 8%. HUT was the lone gainer, adding 3.7%. WULF's 2.7% weekly decline looks relatively contained in that context, though the stock is down 13% over the past month regardless.

With Q3 results scheduled for November 10, the next 33 days will be watched for any update on megawatt deployment timelines and the pace of HPC revenue conversion from backlog to recognised income.