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AMX enters its October 13 earnings release with a notable divergence: the stock has weakened sharply over the past month, yet short sellers have been pulling back just as quickly.
The price tells a cautious story. América Móvil has fallen 7.3% over the past month to $21.32, including a 3.7% drop on October 9 alone. Yet options positioning is only mildly defensive. The put/call ratio of 0.75 sits less than one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.66, well short of the 52-week high of 1.50, suggesting options traders are not pricing in an extreme outcome in either direction.
Short interest tells a more interesting story heading into the print. Borrow demand has dropped sharply, falling 7.5% over the past week and roughly 30% from its mid-September peak. The lending market remains extremely loose: availability is running at over 7,600% of short interest, meaning shares to borrow are abundant relative to current demand. Cost to borrow sits at a negligible 0.47%. This is not a crowded short trade, and there is no pressure building from the lending side.
The analyst community is broadly constructive but split on conviction. JP Morgan's upgrade to Overweight in August, with a $32 target, represents the most recent meaningful move from a bellwether firm, and sits well above the current price. UBS carries a Buy rating with a $31.50 target. Scotiabank is more cautious, maintaining Sector Perform with a target near $20.80, close to where the stock now trades. The consensus mean target of around $29.47 implies roughly 38% upside from current levels, though the wide spread between Scotiabank's floor and JP Morgan's ceiling reflects genuine disagreement about whether currency and macro headwinds in Latin American markets will weigh on the company's dollar-reported results. With a trailing P/E near 10.9x and EV/EBITDA compressing gradually, valuation is not the obstacle bears are focused on; revenue growth consistency and peso-dollar translation are.
Ownership is dominated by Carlos Slim family vehicles, which collectively control well above 50% of shares outstanding. BlackRock and Vanguard both added modestly to their positions in recent months, with GQG Partners building a more substantial position through June. The concentrated ownership structure means short-term positioning data carries less weight here than it might for a broadly held name: the free float is relatively small, which amplifies any moves in short interest on a percentage basis even when the absolute share count is modest.
The October 13 print will test whether AMX's underlying subscriber trends and operational efficiency gains are enough to offset a strengthening dollar against the peso, and whether the company can give investors a reason to close the wide gap between the current price and the analyst consensus.
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