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ASML reports third-quarter results on 14 October with the stock down 5% on the week to EUR 1,575.80, even as short sellers remain almost entirely absent from the picture.
The lending market is, if anything, more indifferent than when the last trader note was filed. Availability is effectively uncapped, borrow costs have crept up 23% over the past week to 0.79% but remain low in absolute terms, and the short score of 25.6 ranks in the bottom quarter of the ORTEX universe. That score has been virtually flat for a fortnight, confirming no build-up of short-side conviction ahead of the print. The weekly price dip from EUR 1,657 to EUR 1,576 appears sector-driven rather than stock-specific.
The sector context is the more interesting angle. ASML's 5% weekly decline looks modest against the carnage elsewhere in semiconductor equipment. BESI fell more than 12% on the week, dropped over 10%, lost nearly 11%, and shed more than 8%. slipped 6.5%. ASML's relative resilience is consistent with its EUV monopoly insulating it from the more cyclical pressures hitting its peers, though the sector headwinds are broad enough that they form the backdrop to tomorrow's numbers.
The institutional register shows active accumulation ahead of the print. FMR added 502,355 shares in the latest reported quarter, Capital Research added 674,051, and Amundi added 314,898. BlackRock, already the largest holder at 7.2% of shares, added a further 82,000. The one-sided direction of the most recent insider activity reinforces the picture: the only open-market transaction in the last 90 days was a supervisory board purchase of 125 shares in July, worth roughly EUR 194,500. The February executive sales were compensation-linked grants immediately liquidated, standard practice rather than a directional signal.
The July Q2 print produced a muted reaction: the stock gained 2.7% on the day and held those gains over five days. That print set a known-high bar on orders and bookings. Tomorrow's report will test whether ASML can sustain that order momentum amid a broader equipment-sector retreat, and whether its margin guidance holds at a PE of 32x and a price-to-book above 18x, multiples that leave little room for disappointment even as peers trade sharply lower.
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