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EFX has made a sharp reversal this week, jumping 14% on Tuesday alone and 13% over the past five trading days to close at CAD 39.11, erasing a significant portion of the year-to-date losses that had weighed on the stock through most of 2026.
The move stands in stark contrast to what peers are doing. PUMP fell 8% on the week and AESI dropped nearly 7%. AROC managed a modest 2% gain. On the TSX side, TCW added 4%. Enerflex's double-digit surge is entirely company-specific, not a sector bid. A prior note from late September had flagged the stock as a meaningful underperformer against this peer group, down more than 31% year-to-date at that point. The price is now up 23% over the past month, suggesting a rapid compression of that gap.
The borrow market gives no hint of a squeeze driving this. Availability is extraordinarily loose, with roughly 43 million shares still available to borrow against fewer than 5 million shares short. That ratio translates to an availability figure above 3,400%, meaning the lending pool is nowhere near under pressure. Short interest itself has barely moved, sitting at 3.8% of free float and down less than 1% over the past month. Cost to borrow is 1.05%, up 29% over 30 days in absolute terms but still a low number in any practical sense. The short score has drifted slightly lower this week to 36.9. None of this looks like a short-driven pop. Shorts are not scrambling, and the borrow conditions are among the loosest of the past year.
The Street is constructive on the stock at current levels. The mean analyst price target stands at CAD 49.81, implying roughly 27% upside from Tuesday's close. Forward earnings expectations are a standout: the eps_12m_fwd_yoy_increase factor ranks in the 89th percentile across the universe, pointing to sharply revised earnings growth expectations. The dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile, though the last dividend on record dates back to May 2022, so that ranking likely reflects the historical track record rather than a current yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded by about 0.5 turns over 30 days, consistent with the price re-rating. EPS surprise, however, ranks only in the 22nd percentile, and the last earnings print in August produced a 9% single-day drop. The institutional register is dominated by Canadian managers, with Connor, Clark and Lunn holding just over 11% of shares and having added nearly 2.3 million shares in the quarter to June.
Q3 results are due October 29, two weeks away. After two consecutive earnings-day declines totalling roughly 9% and 7% respectively, the market will be watching whether the revised forward earnings story translates into an actual beat, or whether the pre-results rally creates a difficult setup for the print.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open EFX on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
