SoFi Short Interest Jumps 8% in a Week as the October Print Looms

The borrow market has loosened notably, which is the more interesting shift since last week. Availability has widened sharply to 140%, up from around 94% a week ago, and well above the 52-week trough of 79.6%. That loosening means the cost of maintaining a short position has not spiked despite the renewed demand for borrows: the cost to borrow is 0.53%, barely moved from its recent range. Borrow availability loosening even as short interest climbs suggests new shorts are being sourced without straining the lending pool, removing one of the preconditions for a mechanically forced unwind. Options positioning offers no counterweight. The put/call ratio is 0.45, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.45 and sitting near the low end of its 52-week range of 0.37 to 0.68. Options traders are not hedging into the print the way they were at the September 28 spike to 0.53; if anything, calls are holding their share of the flow.

The Street is divided but tilting cautious. StoneX initiated with a Buy and a $25 target on October 13, a positive signal at the margin. But TD Cowen trimmed its Hold target to $17.50 from $18.00 just last week, and Morgan Stanley carries an Underweight with a $15.00 target that sits almost exactly at the current price of $15.24. The consensus mean target is $20.36, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels, though that figure is skewed by more constructive names like Needham ($24) and Scotiabank ($25). The bull case rests on the Q1 data: GAAP revenue up 43%, originations up 68%, NIM expanding to 5.94%, and a total product count of 19.3 million pointing to durable cross-sell. The bear case focuses on the tech segment, where revenue fell 27% and annualised revenue per account dropped 14%, leaving SoFi exposed to credit deterioration and margin pressure if the macro softens. The price-to-book multiple has compressed 27 basis points over the past 30 days to 1.56x, and the PE of 19.7x has fallen by 3.5 turns in the same period, reflecting the month-long 12% price decline.

FDIC call report data for SoFi's banking charter shows total assets have risen for nine consecutive quarters, reaching $56.8 billion in the most recent quarter, and total deposits have also grown for nine consecutive quarters to $46.8 billion. The FDIC dataset has not been tested long enough to establish whether it leads reported earnings, so these figures are background rather than a directional read on the October 26 print. They do, however, confirm the deposit-gathering momentum that underpins the bull case on NIM and unit economics.

Peer performance this week does not flatter SoFi. Closest correlated name UPST was roughly flat on the week. HAPN fell 3.5%, broadly tracking SoFi's own 3.3% weekly decline. Consumer finance names like SYF and AXP each gained around 2%, suggesting the weakness is more specific to digital lender names than a broad sector move.

With twelve days to the print, the key question is whether the fresh 8% weekly short build reflects new conviction ahead of earnings or pre-positioning ahead of what the history suggests is a modest initial reaction. The last two prints saw a day-one move of roughly negative 1.6%, followed by a five-day move of approximately positive 9%, a pattern that would be uncomfortable for a short entering at current levels. Whether the renewed acceleration in short interest this week continues or reverses is the metric to track into October 26.