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Modivo is a stock where the bear thesis keeps getting more expensive to own and keeps failing to pay off.
The cost to carry a short in MDV has risen roughly 19% since the end of August, reaching 15.8% per annum. That is down from a peak of 17.3% seen last week, but the direction of travel over the past two months is unambiguously higher. Availability has been at or near zero for most of the past six weeks. The lending pool is completely exhausted. Every share that can be borrowed already is, and that has been the default state on the vast majority of sessions since mid-September. The ORTEX short score has barely moved, holding at 91.6 this week against 91.5 a week ago. Both the short score rank and the utilization rank sit in the first percentile of the ORTEX universe. This is among the most compressed short setups in the market.
What the positioning has not delivered is a falling stock price. MDV closed at PLN 93.0 on Tuesday, up 3.1% on the week and 7.7% over the past month. Each prior note in this series has flagged the same paradox, and it continues to hold. The ORTEX short score confirms this is an entrenched position rather than new activity. Bears are not adding aggressively. They are sitting, paying a high carry, and watching the stock drift against them.
Two institutional holders are worth noting because their recent moves cut in opposite directions. Nationale-Nederlanden added 3.1 million shares in the period ending April 30, one of the larger additions in the register. AgioFunds, meanwhile, trimmed by 842,000 shares in the period to July. Goldman Sachs holds 6.4% of shares and added modestly as of June. The ownership picture is dominated by ULTRO with a 33.3% anchor stake, which limits the freely available float and likely contributes to the persistent tightness in the lending market.
The next earnings event is scheduled for November 27. Prior prints produced a 3.4% one-day gain in October and a 7.4% one-day decline in August. The November print will be the clearest test yet of whether the bear thesis has any fundamental anchor, or whether the short position continues to bleed carry against a stock that refuses to cooperate.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open MDV on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
