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SPCX heads into Monday's earnings report with a story that has barely changed since Tuesday: shorts are still covering, options traders are leaning mildly bullish, and the stock is cheaper than it was a week ago.
Short interest has continued its grind lower since the previous articles noted the trend. Estimated shares short fell further to 171.6 million by October 15, extending the retreat from the September 24 peak of 195.4 million. That is a decline of roughly 12% from the peak over three weeks, and it keeps going even as the stock itself dropped 10% over the past week to $146.03. The disconnect flagged in earlier coverage persists: bears are choosing to leave into a falling stock, not being squeezed out. Borrow conditions give them no reason to panic. Cost to borrow is a modest 0.49%, down 7% on the week, and availability is running at 233%, more than two shares available for every one currently shorted. The borrow market is loose by any measure.
Options positioning has actually shifted away from the defensive skew that dominated much of September. The put/call ratio has pulled back to 0.95, roughly 1.3 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.02. For most of the past month the ratio sat well above 1.0, touching 1.14 in late September. That the ratio has now flipped below its mean heading into the print suggests call buying has picked up relative to put buying, a subtle tilt toward optimism rather than protection.
The analyst community is adding fuel to the bull case. Evercore ISI raised its target to $275 on Thursday, and Barclays initiated with an Overweight and a $254 target just last week. Against a stock at $146 and a consensus mean target around $222, the implied upside is large, though Susquehanna and MoffettNathanson hold Neutral ratings with targets of $173 and $142 respectively, close to where the stock is trading now. Bulls are focused on Starlink's margin expansion and the emerging AI infrastructure revenue stream, with connectivity revenue estimated at $17 billion in 2026. Bears point to Starship execution risk, uncertain AI monetization timing, and a Starlink AI segment where second-quarter advertising revenue fell roughly 14% year on year. The forward PE has compressed 20 points over the past month to around 95, still elevated, but the direction of travel on valuation is downward.
Past earnings reactions offer a consistent pattern worth noting: the August print saw the stock fall roughly 5 to 8% on the day before recovering more than 16% over the following five sessions. The print itself delivered a sharp drop; patient holders were rewarded within the week. With the short book still trimming and options positioning tilted toward calls, Monday's report will test whether the revenue and margin trajectory on both Starlink and AI infrastructure can justify a stock that has shed more than 10% in a week yet still trades well below what most of the Street thinks it is worth.
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