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MNDY heads into its November earnings with shorts cutting exposure sharply, yet analysts have been moving to the sidelines just as fast, leaving the stock caught between two forms of capitulation.
The positioning picture has shifted materially over the past two weeks. Short interest fell nearly 15% on the week to 9.9% of the free float, a meaningful drop from the roughly 14% reading implied by mid-October levels. The bulk of that unwind happened in one step: shorts shed close to 900,000 shares between October 7 and October 9, reducing their position from around 6 million shares to just above 5.1 million. Borrow costs, though low in absolute terms at 0.62%, jumped 68% on the week, which may reflect the friction of that covering activity. Availability remains extremely loose at 1,793% of short interest, meaning there are far more shares available to borrow than there are shares currently borrowed. That rules out any mechanical squeeze. Options traders tell a slightly different story: the put/call ratio of 1.31 is running modestly below its 20-day average of 1.36, a z-score of about negative 1.2, which means the recent trend toward less protective put demand is actually coming off an elevated base. The ratio peaked above 1.45 in late September and early October, some of the most defensive positioning of the past year, and has drifted back without fully normalising.
The Street has grown notably more cautious. Two heavyweight downgrades have landed since late September. JP Morgan's Mark Murphy cut MNDY to Neutral from Overweight on September 29, lowering the target to $87. Barclays followed on October 12, with Raimo Lenschow dropping the stock to Equal-Weight from Overweight while keeping the target at $100. Both actions came after the August earnings report, which itself triggered a wave of target cuts from UBS, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Cantor Fitzgerald. The consensus has settled at Hold, with 12 hold ratings and only 3 outperforms. The mean target of $108 sits roughly 19% above the current price of $90.37, but that gap reflects stale bullish targets more than it represents genuine conviction: the most recent bellwether moves have been firmly in the other direction. Factor scores add colour. EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the 90th percentile, a residual echo of past beats, but the analyst recommendation differential ranks in just the 2nd percentile, reflecting how poorly positioned the stock is on the Street right now. EPS surprise ranks in the 22nd percentile, a weak reading that suggests the company has not been consistently clearing the bar.
The bull and bear cases are well-defined heading into November. Bulls point to the 22% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, AI ARR doubling quarter-on-quarter to roughly $20 million, and a rising enterprise customer count with $50k-plus ARR accounts at 4,834. Bears focus on the fact that management held full-year guidance flat despite the Q2 beat, implying the back half of the year is assumed to give most of it back. Net revenue retention dropped to 109% and is expected to end the year at 108%, total new customer adds fell 38% year-on-year, and Q3 guidance came in below Street consensus. A 20% reduction in force and the margin pressure from AI investment complicate the operating leverage story.
The earnings track record is worth flagging plainly. The last reported quarter, August 2026, produced a one-day decline of just over 6% and a five-day decline of more than 10%. That single data point is the clearest read available from recent history on how the market has treated MNDY prints, and it coincided with the analyst downgrades and guidance disappointment described above.
Among close peers, the week has been broadly weak across software but with notable dispersion. ASAN fell 5.4% on the day and 2.1% on the week, worse than MNDY's 1.6% weekly gain. CRM added 5% on the week and APPF nearly 5%, suggesting the group is not moving in lockstep and that stock-specific factors are dominating. Goldman Sachs disclosed a fresh 13G position of 6.6% in August, and Capital World Investors filed a 13G for 6.5% in February. Neither is a 13D activist filing, so there is no disclosed activist pressure, but the institutional concentration is notable. Co-founders Roy Mann and Eiran Zinman together hold roughly 15% of shares outstanding.
The next earnings date of November 9 is the clearest watch point. Between now and then, the key question is whether the short covering of the past week represents genuine sentiment improvement or simply position-trimming ahead of a print where expectations have already been reset lower.
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