Tesla Pre-Earnings Options Heat, Chips Draw Put Flow

TSLA dominates options desks ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings tomorrow. The stock is down 21% year-to-date. Negative bets rank among the largest in the large-cap universe over the past week. Short interest sits at just 2.5% of free float, so the options market is the primary arena for directional positioning.

The timing matters. ORTEX alt data shows German electric-car registrations running 269% above the same quarter a year earlier. That dataset leads Tesla revenue by 43 days and has tracked in the same direction for three consecutive months. Call buyers watching that signal are competing with a market-wide drift toward puts across chip names.

NVDA and AMD lead negative options flow by dollar value over the past seven days. Chip stocks have been volatile. CNBC noted that an S&P 500 rebound in chip names "failed" on Friday, a session after a sharp South Korean tech selloff. MU has the largest negative bet tally among pure-play semiconductor names.

AAPL leans bullish. Apple SVP Greg Joswiak hinted at a new product announcement next week, lifting call interest. Positive options flow for Apple reached 100% of ORTEX's 7-day options score.

GM reports tomorrow as well. German car data leads GM revenue by 15 days and is running 133% above the prior-year quarter. Options sentiment there is less extreme than Tesla's, but the stock carries a short interest of only 2.4% of free float, leaving event risk firmly in the derivatives market.

On the index side, Fabrinet's MSCI World deletion probability jumped to 90% overnight. Trackers face $779M of forced selling if confirmed on 11 November.