MBLY Shorts at One-Year High With Earnings Hours Away

Mobileye Global, the Intel-controlled autonomous driving technology company, reports Q3 results on October 22 with short sellers at their most committed position in at least a year and a fresh downgrade from a major bank landing the day before the announcement.

Short interest has climbed to 21% of free float, up 23% over the past month. The jump is not a gradual drift: roughly 4.5 million additional shares were added to the short book in a single step around October 9, taking the position from roughly 40 million shares to 44 to 45 million. Days-to-cover from the official FINRA settlement figure is 6.5, which gives context to how large the position has become relative to normal trading volume. Critically, the borrow market has tightened sharply in the past 24 hours. Availability dropped from 527% on Monday to 174% on Tuesday, the lowest reading in the past 52 weeks. Cost to borrow rose 52% over the week to 0.67%, a modest absolute level but the steepest weekly move in the 30-day window. The lending market can still absorb new shorts, but it is meaningfully tighter than it was even two days ago. Options traders remain relatively calm by contrast, with the put/call ratio at 0.52, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.52 and nowhere near the defensive extreme of 0.72 set earlier in the year.

The analyst picture is a one-directional story. RBC Capital downgraded the stock to Underperform on October 21, cutting its target from $7 to $5, the lowest price target from any major bank on the stock. That sits well below the consensus mean of $11.11. Evercore ISI, which still holds an Outperform rating, cut its target from $16 to $11 on October 19. TD Cowen trimmed from $9 to $8 while keeping a Buy. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both reduced targets in mid-October to $9 and $8 respectively. Citigroup initiated coverage at Buy with an $11 target on October 16, the lone constructive fresh voice in a week otherwise defined by target reductions. The bear case centres on a deteriorating return on capital, which slipped from -2.37% to -3.23% over the latest twelve months, ongoing losses, delayed ramps for SuperVision and Chauffeur into late 2027, and execution risk from a CEO transition. The bull case rests on Q2 2026 revenue of $508 million, an adjusted EPS of $0.19 against a $0.06 consensus, a $24.5 billion eight-year design-win pipeline, and $1.3 billion of cash. The stock trades at 0.73 times book and 8.3 times EV/EBITDA, with both multiples little changed over the past week.

The ownership structure adds a specific dimension. CEO Amnon Shashua filed a Schedule 13D in February 2026, declaring a 7.3% stake with activist intent. Intel holds 76% of shares outstanding. Two directors made open-market purchases in July and August at prices between $7.98 and $8.46, small in dollar terms at roughly $100,000 each, but discretionary buys at prices close to where the stock trades now. As with all 13D/G positions, stakes are as last disclosed and holders can fall below the 5% threshold without filing again.

The last earnings print, in July, produced an 8.3% one-day decline and a 10% five-day drop. The stock enters this Q3 release at $7.30, up 4% on the week, against a median one-week change of roughly -1.4% for its closest correlated peers, which include HSAI, down 3.3% on the week, and QS, also down 3.4%.

The Q3 print, scheduled for after the close on October 22, will determine whether the short position built over the past month proves well-timed or faces the covering pressure that a 6.5-day days-to-cover reading would imply if sentiment shifts.