Modivo Heads Into Results With Borrow Locked and Bears Dug In

Modivo reports Thursday with availability near zero, short conviction unchanged, and the stock down on the week, leaving almost no slack in the lending market ahead of the print.

The borrow picture has tightened further since yesterday's note. Availability has slipped to 0.79%, fractionally above the zero readings seen repeatedly through October. For every hundred shares already lent out, fewer than one remains available. Cost to borrow has edged back up to 14.4% after briefly dipping toward 10% last week, confirming that demand for borrows has not eased despite that temporary softening. The ORTEX short score has remained in an exceptionally narrow band, between 91.2 and 91.5, for the past two weeks, putting Modivo at the 1st percentile globally on ORTEX's availability factor. The stock has lost 5.2% over the past week and 2.6% in Monday's session alone, closing at PLN 93.24, though it remains 5% above where it traded a month ago.

Short sellers are firmly entrenched, but their position is essentially frozen. With availability this close to exhausted, those already short cannot easily exit into a borrow they no longer hold, and new entrants face a market where the borrow simply is not there. The 20.4% short interest as a percentage of float, flagged in recent notes, reflects a structurally committed short base. Any positive surprise from Thursday's results would force covering into an illiquid lending pool, while a disappointing print would validate a position that cannot easily be added to anyway.

The institutional register adds some context. The controlling shareholder ULTRO holds 33.3% of shares, limiting the effective free float. Nationale-Nederlanden trimmed by 1.25 million shares in the last reported period, and AgioFunds cut its stake by 842,000 shares. Goldman Sachs holds 6.4%. With the float already constrained and multiple large holders having recently reduced, the pool of available stock is structurally tight independent of the short demand layered on top.

Thursday's print will test whether Modivo's operational numbers justify the sustained short conviction, or whether any hint of improvement in margins or revenue trajectory is enough to trigger covering in a market where supply has effectively run out.