Mobileye options traders turn bullish even as short sellers hold firm

Two weeks after an earnings-driven collapse, MBLY is sending a split signal. Short interest has settled near 23.6% of the free float, still the highest level in at least a year. Yet options traders are now the most call-heavy they have been in three years.

The options divergence

The put/call ratio fell to 0.43 on November 3, against a 20-day mean of 0.51. The z-score of -2.95 puts current positioning nearly three standard deviations below the recent norm. The 52-week low sits at 0.33, so there is room to run, but the direction of travel is unambiguous: relative to the past month, calls are dominating the options market at an unusual degree.

That sits in direct contrast to the short book. ORTEX estimates 51 million shares are currently borrowed against Mobileye, up from 44.4 million on October 22, the day before the earnings print dropped. The one-week change in short interest is 14.9%. The stock has fallen 18.6% over the past week. The closest peer group, led by Hesai Group and QuantumScape, managed a median decline of roughly 1.4% over the same period.

The borrowing market itself is not constrained. Availability sits at 421%, meaning roughly four shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed. That level has actually tightened from 585% a month ago, but it remains generous. Cost to borrow is 0.57%, low in absolute terms. Short sellers are not being squeezed out; they are holding a profitable position with ample room to add.

What analysts left behind

The post-earnings analyst action created the backdrop for both trades. Since October 29, every major firm that covered Mobileye cut its price target. Barclays lowered to $7 from $9. JP Morgan went to $7.50 from $9. BNP Paribas is at $6.50. Goldman Sachs and UBS both sit at $7. RBC Capital carries an Underperform with a $5 target, the lowest on the street. The consensus mean is $9.37, but that figure reflects targets from before the earnings print that have not yet been updated. The drift is downward.

Mobileye closed at $5.59 on November 3. That is below every published target except RBC's, yet the consensus mean sits 68% above the current price. The gap between where analysts have targets and where the stock trades is wide enough to explain both the options call-buying (consensus implies significant upside) and the short-book persistence (the fundamental trajectory is still deteriorating).

The ORTEX short score stands at 68.3, pulling back modestly from a recent peak of 73.5 on October 20 but remaining elevated. The EPS momentum rank sits at the 32nd percentile, reflecting the downward revisions the earnings miss triggered.

What to watch

The next earnings date is January 21, 2027, 78 days out. Between now and then, the key variable is whether further analyst target cuts close the gap between consensus and current price, or whether the stock recovers enough to meet them. Any amendment to Intel's 13G/A, which last disclosed a 79.8% stake, would also move the register materially.

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Data summary

• SI % of free float: 23.6% (Nov 2), up 14.9% in one week, up 27.2% in one month
• Shares short: ~51 million vs ~44.4 million on Oct 22
• Availability: 421% (ample, down from 585% one month ago)
• Cost to borrow: 0.57%
• Put/call ratio: 0.43 (z-score: -2.95; 52-week range: 0.33 to 0.72)
• ORTEX short score: 68.3
• Stock: $5.59, down 18.6% over one week
• Next earnings: January 21, 2027