Jefferies Upgrade Meets Rising Short Bets Ahead of DECK's Thursday Print

DECK heads into its July 23 earnings report with the Street freshly divided — an upgrade from Jefferies colliding with a sharp month-long build in short interest.

The most notable pre-earnings signal is the analyst move. Jefferies upgraded DECK to Buy on July 13, lifting its target from $110 to $130 — a meaningful step up against a stock trading near $106. That vote of confidence contrasts with a consensus that remains a cautious Hold, split between 8 buys and 11 holds, with a mean target around $128. The broader analyst trajectory since the last print has been mixed: UBS raised its target to $161 following strong May results, then pulled it back to $145 two weeks later. Barclays trimmed slightly while keeping Overweight, and Wells Fargo went to Underweight with a $90 target. What emerges is a picture where bulls focus on Hoka's brand momentum, e-commerce expansion, and multi-year margin guidance, while bears flag tariff exposure and 96% revenue concentration in just two brands — UGG and Hoka.

Short positioning tells a sharper story. Bears have been adding steadily. Short interest has climbed roughly 50% over the past month to 4.5% of free float — a meaningful move in both speed and magnitude. The weekly acceleration alone ran close to 24%, with the bulk of that jump appearing to land around July 9-10. The ORTEX short score has crept up alongside, reaching 38 by July 16 from around 35 a week earlier. Despite that build, the borrow market remains very relaxed — availability is extraordinarily high, well above 5,000% of short interest, and borrowing costs are near the floor at 0.40% annualised, down around 13% on the week. There is no squeeze tension in the lending market; new shorts are entering easily and cheaply.

Options positioning is quiet by comparison, and that divergence is worth noting. The put/call ratio at 0.82 is fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.83, with a z-score barely below zero. There is no unusual hedging demand from derivatives traders — a contrast to the short-interest build that suggests the increase in bearish positioning is concentrated in the stock itself rather than spreading into options. The stock is down 3.3% over the past month and slipped 2.3% on the day before the weekend, landing at $106.49 — below the mean analyst target by roughly 17%.

The last earnings event provided a material jolt: DECK rose 8.6% the day after its May print and extended to a 16% gain over the following five days. Thursday's release will test whether the company can repeat that momentum against a short base that is now meaningfully larger, a tariff backdrop the bears are leaning on, and a stock that has given back most of that post-May gain.