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DNP enters the first week of October with the bears in retreat and the November 5 earnings date drawing closer, a combination that makes the current positioning picture worth reading carefully.
The short-side easing noted last week has continued. The ORTEX short score has declined further to 70.1 from 70.5 on September 29, extending a run that began from 74.5 on September 16. That is a meaningful directional shift: the score compresses SI, borrow costs and borrow availability into one read, and when all three move in the same direction for three weeks, it reflects genuine repositioning rather than noise. Borrow availability has widened to 207% of short interest, well above the 52-week floor of 150% touched on September 11, and borrowing costs have dipped to 0.85%, near the lower end of the range seen over the past six weeks. The lending market is looser now than at any point since late August, which removes one of the structural supports for maintaining an aggressive short book.
The Street's view is cautious rather than hostile. Five analysts carry a hold consensus, with a mean price target of PLN 35.87 against Friday's close of PLN 33.66. That implies around 6.5% upside on paper. The most notable factor score is the forward earnings revision rank, which sits at the 100th percentile, meaning DNP's 12-month forward EPS has been revised upward more aggressively than virtually any stock in the ORTEX universe. That sits in stark contrast to the short score rank of 8, which flags the stock as still heavily shorted by global standards. Bulls point to the earnings revision momentum and a PE of 17.5x, which has compressed by roughly 1.4 points over the past month as the stock has fallen 7%. Bears are paying PLN 33.66 for a grocer that remains under structural short pressure, even as the borrow market loosens around them.
Ownership gives a clearer read on the long-term anchor. Founder Tomasz Biernacki holds 51.2% of shares, a controlling stake that has not moved. BlackRock added about 1.1 million shares through September, Capital Research added roughly 979,000 through August, and Baillie Gifford added 2.2 million through June. These are modest additions at the margin but consistent with patient institutional money gradually building exposure while the stock drifts lower. The most recent insider activity in the data is from November 2025, when supervisory board member Eryk Bajer bought roughly 40,000 shares across three transactions at prices around PLN 42, well above the current level.
Recent earnings history gives context for what November might bring. The two most recent prints produced next-day moves of plus 12.6% in May and plus 7.0% in August, with five-day returns of plus 10.8% and plus 9.1% respectively. Both were positive surprises. The stock has reacted strongly and consistently to the upside after recent results, which matters when reading the current short positioning: bears holding into a print with that kind of reaction history are working against a track record that has repeatedly punished them.
With DNP down 7% over the past month and the short score still at 70, what to watch next is whether short interest begins to reflect the loosening borrow conditions, and whether the forward earnings revision story translates into a beat when the November 5 print arrives.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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