WULF Rebounds but Analysts Cut Targets as Buildout Risk Grows

Short positioning has shifted slightly but remains a defining feature. Bears hold 28.8% of the free float, around 120.5 million shares, fractionally below last week's 29% and little changed from the prior note. The month-on-month increase of 13.4% is the more telling statistic: shorts have been building steadily into the stock's decline, not retreating. The ORTEX short score has drifted down a touch to 69.6, from a recent high near 70.4 mid-week, but that remains well within elevated territory. Borrow conditions have loosened noticeably. Availability has moved back to 112%, up from the 88 to 91% range seen earlier in the week, meaning roughly one share is available to borrow for each one already lent. Cost to borrow has crept up 11.5% on the week to 0.68%, a month-on-month increase of 25.6%, though in absolute terms it remains very cheap at well under 1% per annum. The structural short is not expensive to maintain, and the lending pool is not tight.

Options traders are not reading this as a defensive moment. The put/call ratio of 0.34 is fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.35, placing it near the 52-week low of 0.32. That is the most call-heavy positioning the stock has seen all year, a posture that reflects speculative appetite for upside rather than hedging against further falls. The pattern has been consistent over the past month: calls have dominated even as the stock shed 18% over 30 days. Whether that reflects genuine conviction in the AI data center transition thesis or simply a cheap-options bet on a volatile name is harder to say.

Ownership is worth noting given the activist filing register. CEO Paul Prager holds a Schedule 13D position, and the register carries two separate 13D/A amendments, confirming activist-level intent on the register. As last disclosed, Prager controlled around 7% of shares. Bank of Nova Scotia holds 7.98% as of June 30, and Lone Pine Capital built a new 4.84% position. On the insider trading side, the 90-day net balance is a disposal of around $5.1 million in value, with the CEO selling 137,500 shares in late August under a 10b5-1 plan. A director, Michael Bucella, made two small open-market purchases in August and September totalling around $140,000, offering a modest counter-signal but not enough to shift the net picture. All 13D/G stakes are as last disclosed and holders dropping below 5% may not file again.

Earnings are scheduled for November 6, three weeks away. The two most recent prints both produced sharp one-day declines, with the stock falling around 6.7% and 8% on the day of release. With the stock already down 18% over the past month heading into results, attention will focus on how much of the contracted capacity has converted to delivered revenue and whether the construction timeline for the 336MW currently under construction is holding.