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MNDY enters its November 9 earnings date in an unusual equilibrium: short sellers have retreated sharply over the past two weeks, yet the analyst community has been cutting ratings almost in lockstep, leaving the stock without a clear constituency.
The short-covering story is now well-established but worth updating. Short interest has fallen close to 15% on the week to 9.9% of the free float, with the bulk of the unwind happening in a single step between October 7 and October 9, when shorts shed roughly 900,000 shares to take the position from around 6 million to just above 5.1 million. Borrow costs jumped 68% on the week to 0.62%, likely reflecting friction from that covering activity rather than new demand to short, and the absolute level remains low. Availability is extremely loose at 1,793% of short interest, meaning lenders hold more than seventeen times the shares currently borrowed. Any mechanical squeeze is firmly off the table. The ORTEX short score has also eased, dropping from 55 to 52 across the week, consistent with the picture of bears pulling back rather than pressing.
The analyst side has moved in the opposite direction. Two bellwether downgrades in the past three weeks set the tone: JP Morgan's Mark Murphy moved to Neutral from Overweight at the end of September, cutting his target from $90 to $87. Then on October 12, Barclays' Raimo Lenschow downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight while holding a $100 target. Both moves came after the August results, which triggered a further wave of cuts across UBS, Wolfe Research, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Wells Fargo, with most analysts either reducing targets or stepping back to Neutral. The consensus has settled at hold, with 12 hold ratings against just three outperforms, and a mean target of $108. At $90.37, that implies around 20% upside on paper, but targets are clustered in the $87 to $110 range, meaning the Street's base case already prices little from here. The EPS momentum score over 90 days ranks in the 90th percentile, suggesting analysts have actually been revising estimates upward over that window, which sits in some tension with the rating downgrades, though the 30-day forward EPS estimate growth score of just 20 tells the more cautious shorter-term story.
The bull and bear cases are genuinely divided on the same set of facts. Bulls point to 22% revenue growth in Q2, AI ARR doubling quarter-on-quarter to roughly $20 million and rising to 17% of net new ARR, and enterprise momentum with $100k-plus ARR customers growing 37% year-on-year. Bears counter that Q2's beat was handed back immediately: full-year guidance was held flat, Q3 revenue guidance came in below the Street, net revenue retention slipped to 109% and is expected to dip further to 108%, and the company is managing a 20% headcount reduction alongside an upmarket sales pivot. The stock is down roughly 4% on the month and has shed 4.2% in the past session alone, though it is still up 1.6% on the week. The day's move was broadly shared: ASAN fell 5.4%, NOW dropped 4.4%, and HUBS declined 3.3%, so at least part of Friday's weakness was sector-wide rather than stock-specific.
Among the top holders, Goldman Sachs added nearly 2 million shares in the quarter to June 30, taking its stake to 6.8% of shares outstanding. Disciplined Growth Investors added 859,000 shares in the same period. Offsetting that, Renaissance Technologies trimmed by 625,000 shares, and WCM Investment Management has effectively exited, cutting from 7.3% to a token position. Co-founder Roy Mann holds 11.4% and co-founder Eran Zinman holds 3.9%, both stable. Insider activity in the filing record has been limited to the CRO, George James Case, running a routine pattern of option exercises followed by discretionary open-market sales in the low tens of thousands of dollars, with net insider selling of around $339,000 over the past 90 days. Nothing in the insider data reads as a conviction signal in either direction.
The setup for November 9 is therefore less about whether the short position has fully cleared and more about whether management can offer any guidance revision that closes the gap between Q2's strong enterprise metrics and Q3's cautious implied revenue ramp.
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